We are often asked how this team can be rated higher than that team. Usually these questions arise when there is a notable disparity between the win-loss records of the two teams. At the present time (12/19), we have the Seattle Seahawks (9-5) rated slightly higher than both Atlanta (12-2) and Houston (12-2) in the NFL. Does that make any sense? To us, it does. We are not measuring performance for the entire season. We are measuring the current form of the teams.

This is important in understanding what we do here. Our goal is to forecast the outcome of games to the best extent possible using basic mathematics. In order to do that, one must evaluate the current form of the teams. Clearly, Seattle has been playing extremely well of late. Meanwhile, both Atlanta and Houston seem to have fallen off from their earlier levels of play.

Coach Lou Holtz once put it in words that explain this situation. Lou stated that you never coach the same team twice. Each game is a different deal. Your team's mental attitude changes, along with injuries and many other factors. Teams may struggle early in a season and catch fire late. We often see wildcard NFL champions due to late momentum. The New York Giants are famous for late runs. Green Bay recently got hot late in the year and parlayed it into a championship.

So ... when you look at our ratings, please keep these things in mind. Our goal is to predict the outcome of the next game and we are reasonably good at it. Of course, we occasionally miss by a mile. Comes with the territory.

Other rating systems may have different goals. If one is looking to evaluate the overall performance over an entire season, the results would be different from ours. The BCS is a case in point. Those guys are interested in evaluation, not prediction. In that case, the first game of the season counts as much as the last game. Not here. Recent performances carry the most weight in our rating scheme.

We have long enjoyed making sports bets at CentSports. Today (8/31/11) comes the sad news that CentSports has been absorbed into another free sports betting site. That other site has a series of rules that encourage you to spend 33 cents a day to get a reasonable shot at winning. We do not consider it a "free" site in the real sense of the word. Yes, we belong there, but the twisted rules seem designed to make a profit and to never give a player an even break ... Just our opinion. For awhile, we were limited to making a $3 profit on any play with a $200 minimum cash out. They seem to have eased up a tiny bit on those ridiculous restrictions, but it's still very difficult to get anywhere.

But hey, it's better than nothing!